I just read an article in which George Will effectively stomped on Mike Huckabee and it prompted me to do a little thinking about the upcoming election and who will win. You can read George Will’s article here – http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/04/AR2011030404613.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
The basis of the criticism was Mr. Huckabee’s recent statements that Barack Obama grew up in Kenya. I agree wholeheartedly with Mr. Wills assertion that a potential candidate such as Huckabee should get his facts straight. In fact I usually find myself agreeing with Mr. Will on most topics. Towards the end of the article though, George mentions five potential front runners for the Republican nomination in 2012. That list of names is what prompted me to get back to this blog that I have neglected for so many months. I am sure most of you know who the Republican front runners are by now but if not, here is the short list – Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty. I am not including Mike Huckabee on this list as I think he is pretty much done for.
If this is the list, then the Republicans may as well save their money and just skip this next election. Pass. Take a break. None of these guys will be able to beat Obama. The main reason is what I call Old Rich White Guy Syndrome (ORWGS). Like it or not, far too many people in this country are convinced that all of our problems are because the ORWGs have been running things too long. Granted, Tim Pawlenty is not that old but he also is not that well known outside of his home state. Each of the others either looks like a ORWG, acts like a ORWG or both. On top of that, they each have various other strikes against them which the press will no doubt seize upon and run with.
Mitch Daniels was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under George W. Bush. Right or wrong, this can easily be spun in a negative light. On top of that, he used to work for Eli Lilly. You know, that big evil pharmaceutical company that charges outrageous prices for lifesaving drugs that should be free to everyone. Right or wrong, thats how it will be portrayed. Mitch Daniels does not look nearly as ORWG as some potentials (Newt Gingrich for example) but he does look and act like a Fortune 500 CEO. We all know how popular those guys are right now.
The rest of the pack stacks up similarly. Haley Barbour was Governor during Katrina and looks about as ORWG as it gets. Jon Huntsman is wealthy and looks good for his age but is still very much an ORWG. Mitt Romney was CEO of Bain and Company and founded Bain Capital. If there are any skeletons to find in the closets of either of those companies; the press will find them and exploit them. As I stated before, Tim Pawlenty does not come off nearly as ORWG as the rest but he just doesn’t have the name recognition needed to beat someone like Barrack Obama.
Simply put, these guys are just TOO Republican. And that brings us to the potential candidate I did not mention – Newt Gingrich. I did not mention Newt up front for two reasons. 1) I think he is the guy most likely to get the Republican Nomination and 2) I think he is the guy least likely to be able to beat our current president. You really could not find a guy more Republican than Newt Gingrich; at least not one that wants to run fro President. Don’t get me wrong, I like Newt, I just don’t think he can win. He is very conservative, very outspoken and sadly very, very ORWG. In 2008, Barack Obama won the election mostly because of the enormous margins in urban areas. I just don’t see Newt getting ANY urban electoral votes.
The GOP may very well be thinking that the large gains they made in the 2010 mid terms are an indication that the American people are craving more conservative leadership. They may be correct to some extent but if you look at WHO won those elections and WHERE they won I think you will find that it won’t do the GOP much good in a national election using the electoral college system. As for the WHO, it wasn’t all ORWGs. In fact, there were a significant number of women and minority groups in that sweep, especially in the states that the GOP would need to carry to win a Presidential election. If you recall, the GOP had a fairly large sweep in the house in 1994 and Bill Clinton still won a second term. Bill Clinton did not carry quite the urban margin that Obama carried but if you add in the suburban vote, it was almost as much.
And I think that is exactly what will happen this time around. The economy is improving (maybe not much, but it isn’t getting worse) and unemployment numbers are starting to drop. The war in Iraq is essentially over and we will likely be mostly out of Afghanistan by the time people start casting ballots in 2012. For the GOP to win in 2012 (no matter who they run) there needs to be a compelling reason to kick out the incumbent President or an extremely charismatic GOP candidate with strong urban appeal to vote for. Charismatic and urban appeal are not terms that Republicans are very familiar with lately.
So there is my prediciton; Newt Gingrich versus Barack Obama in 2012 with Mr. Obama winning by a large margin. It doesn’t really have to be Newt though. No matter who the GOP runs, it will be a loss. Unless they run Chuck Norris, then all bets are off.
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